Dutch elections: will populist parties be seen to have momentum? - UOB

Analysts at UOB Group noted that The Netherlands will vote in an election today that has raised concerns that the Netherlands could be the next domino to fall to an anti-establishment movement, ahead of votes in France and Germany later this year. 

Key Quotes:

"The main focus will be on the performance of the populist, anti-immigration Freedom Party (PVV) led by Geert Wilders, as polls suggest the government may lose about half its seats whilst Wilders’ party surges."

"If the Freedom Party comes first in the election, populist parties will be seen to have momentum, which would also tend to boost support for the French National Front under Le Pen. 

This would be the case even though other parties have pledged not to work with the Freedom Party. If the Freedom Party does not perform as well as expected, and there has been some sign of slippage in opinion polls, then overall populist momentum could fade slightly, which may also dampen expectations of any possibility of a National Front victory in France."

"As we mentioned before, whilst this election appears to have less of a market impact (instead, it is the French elections that seem to be the political focal point), this political event is important in its own right, and will have implications for both the upcoming French elections and the European Union cohesion as a whole."