French elections: the current state of the race - Nomura

Analysts at Nomura explained that since our previous update about two weeks ago, their base case remains that Emmanuel Macron is likely to be elected President. 

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Moreover, our conviction in this view has increased as Ms Le Pen’s support in the second round has been unable to break the 40% threshold and given the increasing share of Macron voters saying that they are convinced about their choice. 

This also means that the likelihood of Ms Le Pen enjoying a surprise win in the second round has declined. Recent polls continue to show that Marine Le Pen (Front National – Far right) is likely to win the first round of voting with about 26% of support, roughly stable from two weeks ago. The main change in the polls is that Emmanuel Macron (En Marche! – Centre) has gained support following the alliance with François Bayron and is now receiving about 25% of the support. François Fillon (Républicains – Right) is in third place with about 20% of support, unchanged despite the continued issues plaguing his candidacy. Benoît Hamon (Socialistes – Left) is fourth with 14%, and Jean-Luc Mélanchon (France Insoumise – Far left) is fifth with 11%, both unchanged in recent weeks. 

Based on the polls, the most likely face-off in the second round would be Ms Le Pen vs Mr Macron. In that event, Ms Le Pen should receive about 39% of the vote, little changed from two weeks ago. A Le Pen victory in the second round still looks highly unlikely, as the second round becomes an “anyone but Le Pen” vote. Marine Le Pen needs to gains at least 10pp of support between now and the second round to win. 

This is too large a gain to only be the result of polling errors (the margin of error of polls is 2-3%) and she would need to make genuine support gains. Moreover, a recent poll on perceptions of the Front National suggested that about 58% of respondents view the FN is a threat to democracy. This is likely to make it difficult for Ms Le Pen to make such gains in support in such a short period, and her party would need to soften its extremist image dramatically to achieve that. 

This last point also explains why it will be hard for Marine Le Pen to pull off the same kind of surprise victory as Donald Trump. Mr Trump was heading a well-established mainstream party with a solid support base. In contrast, Ms Le Pen is heading a party that has always been at the margin and that is not respected by a large swath of the electorate."