RBA to play catch-up, raise rates by 50 bps for third month on August 2 – Reuters poll

Australia's central bank will deliver its third consecutive half-point interest rate hike on Tuesday and another in September, playing catch-up with peers in a campaign to contain surging inflation, a Reuters poll of economists found.

Key findings

One of the last major central banks to join a global monetary policy-tightening cycle, the RBA was forecast to raise the cash rate by 50 basis points to 1.85% at its Aug. 2 meeting, according to 32 of 34 economists surveyed July 22-28.

All four major local banks - ANZ, Westpac, CBA and NAB - were expecting a 50-basis-point hike on Tuesday.

The RBA is then expected to deliver a fourth consecutive 50 basis point hike at the September meeting.

A majority, 19 of 31 economists who had a long-term view on rates, now expect the cash rate to reach 2.35% or higher by end-September, not year-end as forecast in the previous poll.

More than half of respondents - 14 of 25 - who had forecasts until the end of next year saw rates hitting 3.00% or higher. Money market traders are betting on rates going above that by the end of this year.

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