USD/CAD: A move to the 1.31-1.32 area is surely possible – ING

Canada’s jobs numbers should show a modest slowdown in hiring. However, USD/CAD is set to be moved by external factors, which could lift the pair to the 1.31/32 area, economists at ING report. 

Jobs data unlikely to impact BoC rate expectations

“Consensus is centred around a 22K headline reading today. We think only a markedly weak reading today can force a dovish re-pricing of BoC rate expectations. Markets are fully pricing in a 75 bps rate hike, and marginally speculating on an even larger increase next week. We expect 75 bps and a lingering hawkish statement.”

“USD/CAD should remain primarily a function of global factors: risk sentiment and commodities above all.” 

“Upside risks for the pair persist in the short term, despite the constructive domestic picture, and a move to the 1.31-1.32 area is surely possible.”

See – Canadian Jobs Preview: Forecasts from five major banks, fairly moderate employment growth in June