EUR/USD: The 1.05 floors looks vulnerable – ING

EUR/USD continues to move up and down in its tight weekly range above 1.05. In the near-term the pair may trade within a 1.05-1.06 range, but economists at ING note that the 1.05 floor does not look particularly strong.

ECB tightening expectations quite steady

“Market expectations for ECB policy rate changes this year have been quite steady over recent weeks, with 85bp of hikes now priced in. We have a whole host of ECB speakers today, who will probably support that pricing. Yet we doubt EUR/USD derives much support until Fed tightening expectations falter – and that seems unlikely.”

“1.05-1.06 may be the near-term range. But with the EU moving ever closer to a full embargo on Russian energy – with negative implications for European growth – the 1.05 floor in EUR/USD does not look particularly strong.”