French Elections: Le Pen victory to widen spreads and weaken euro – Commerzbank

On Sunday, the French will decide whether Emmanuel Macron or Marine Le Pen will rule the country for the next five years. Economists at Commerzbank think that Le Pen's victory would put pressure on the euro.

Macron's victory to hardly cause any major reactions

“On the financial markets, Macron's victory would hardly cause any major reactions apart from initial relief.”

“Le Pen's victory would probably have longer-term repercussions. Even if she no longer calls for a ‘Frexit’, some investors would certainly regard the existence of the monetary union as being at risk. As a result, not only the risk premiums of French bonds but also those of the bonds of the other Southern European countries are likely to increase significantly. As this could further delay a normalization of ECB monetary policy or even prompt the ECB to take new expansionary measures, this is also likely to put pressure on the euro.”