AUD/USD: Too hawkish market’s pricing on RBA to curb aussie upside by year-end – ING

The Australian dollar is on an appreciating run bolstered by the RBA’s monetary policy statement. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) dropped its "patience" reference, but market pricing appears too hawkish. Therefore, market disappointment is set to cap AUD gains, economists at ING report. 

RBA turning less patient

“The RBA clearly reiterated that it would wait for more indications that wage growth has significantly picked before moving to tighten policy. That puts the potential date for the first hike at the June meeting, as the May meeting is scheduled around two weeks before first quarter wage data is released in Australia.”

“While the notion of imminent RBA tightening can help form some short-term support around the 0.7600 level in AUD/USD, it appears that the market’s pricing on RBA tightening has gone too far (seven hikes by year-end), and we, therefore, expect some dovish disappointment along the way to curb AUD upside by year-end.”