S&P Global Market Intelligence: Ukraine war reshaping global geopolitical and economic outlook

S&P Global Market Intelligence revised down its forecast for 2022 global GDP growth in its latest report published on Tuesday.

Key takeaways

“Its forecast of global real GDP growth in 2022 has been marked down to 3.3% from 4.1% in February.”

“Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has triggered a global commodities shock that will further dislocate global supply chains, drive up prices, and slow economic growth—especially in Europe.”

“Russia’s economy will suffer permanent losses through sanctions, an exodus of foreign businesses, and a new emphasis on energy security.”

“On an annual basis, the output will fall 11.1% in 2022 and 3.7% in 2023, with sharp declines in fixed investment, private consumption, and exports.”

“Eurozone consumer price inflation is expected to surge from 2.6% in 2021 to 6.9% in 2022, prompting the European Central Bank to start raising its deposit facility rate in December.”

“The forecast of real GDP growth in 2022 is revised down slightly to 5.1%.”

Related reads

• Russia has failed to achieve its goals in Ukraine
• Fitch cuts world growth forecasts as inflation soars due to Ukraine war