US: Inflation climbed to 40-year peaks at 7.9% in February – UOB

Senior Economist at UOB Group Alvin Liew comments on the latest release of US inflation figures, which saw the CPI rise at the fastest pace since 1982 in February.

Key Takeaways

“US CPI data showed headline inflation surged further by 7.9% y/y in Feb, a new record pace in 40 years since Jan 1982 while core inflation also rose further to 6.4% y/y, highest since Aug 1982. Both inflation prints came exactly in line with Bloomberg estimates.”

“The headline and core CPI inflation not only acclerated but also remained broad-based with price pressures spreading further among the main categories within the CPI basket.”

“We are further upgrading our 2022 CPI inflation forecast to average 6% (from previous forecast of 5%) while the core CPI inflation forecast average is also higher at 5.5% (from previous forecast of 4.5%) due to the confluence of Omicron-related factors (in terms of material but temporary disruption to supply chains, worsening logjams and labor shortages) and commodity price spike. Subsequently, we expect both headline and core inflation to ease in 2023 to average 2.5% (from 2% previously).”