USD/TRY: CBRT to cap spikes above 15.00 – Credit Suisse

The fact that USD/TRY has been drifting higher since the middle of last week suggests that the central bank is now likely to cap spikes above 15.00 instead of defending the 14.00 level that it previously seemed to focus on, economists at Credit Suisse report..

Turkey to see its current account deficit widen substantially

“Turkey is likely to see its current account deficit widen substantially not just as a result of sharp increases to their import bills, but also because of having a large tourism industry that is reliant on arrivals either from Russia or Ukraine. 

“The pressure on the balance of payments, to the extent that it remains in place, is likely to challenge the Turkish central bank’s ability to maintain stability in USD/TRY exchange rate.”

“The fact that the central bank has allowed USD/TRY to drift higher since the middle of last week suggests to us that the central bank, in the context of its FX market intervention, has shifted its focus to a 15.00 level from 14.00 previously.”