IEA: A steady rise in oil supply could see a significant surplus materialize in Q1 2022

In its monthly oil market report published Wednesday, the International Energy Agency (IEA) that a steady rise in oil supply could see a significant surplus materialize in Q1 2022 and going forward.

Additional takeaways

OECD stocks were down 354 mln barrels on a year ago and at lowest level in seven years

OECD industry stocks declined by 6.1 mln barrels in November.

Oil output from OPEC+ could rise this year by 4.4 mln bpd.

World oil supply in 2022 has potential for Saudi-driven gain of 6.2 mln bpd if OPEC+ fully unwinds cuts.

Oil demand set for seasonal decline in Q1 2022, exacerbated by more teleworking and less air travel.

Despite the omicron wave, oil demand rose in Q4 2021 by 1.1 mln bpd to 99 mln bpd.

Global oil demand to rise by 5.5 mln bpd in 2021 and by 3.3 mln bpd in 2022.

Global demand estimates by 200,000 bpd for 2021 and 2022 due to softer covid restrictions.

Mobility indicators remain robust and oil demand has been stronger than expected in recent months.