USD/TRY to surge higher above 20.00 in the second quarter – TDS

Economists at TD Securities look for further sharp Turkish lira depreciation. They forecast the USD/TRY above the 20.00 level in the second quarter of the year.

The nightmare after Christmas

“We think that USD/TRY will rise to 16.25 by end-Q1 and breach well over 20 in Q2. However, this is when we expect the CBRT to start tightening, which should help bring the pair down to around 19 by end-Q2.” 

“The lira can continue appreciating in a gradual manner throughout the rest of 2022 assuming no further policy missteps.” 

“From 2023 onwards, however, policy mistakes are yet again likely to set TRY on a weakening trajectory.”