US: A firm payroll print should seal tapering for November – TD Securities

On Friday, the US official employment report is due. After positive numbers from the ADP report and jobless claims, market participants are set for the Non-farm payrolls reports. According to analysts from TD Securities, a firm payroll print should seal the tapering announcement for November.

Key Quotes: 

"The signals for payrolls in September have been mixed, and large swings in seasonal factors make forecasting the data especially challenging, but we expect a pickup relative to the 235k rise in August (which will probably be revised up a bit). We forecast +525k, which should be more than strong enough for the Fed to start QE tapering in November."

"We expect the USD to retain its firm tone against the funding currencies on a slight data beat, but dips in the USD to be shallow should payrolls underwhelm."

"A firm payroll print should seal the tapering announcement for November, allowing markets to begin pricing in the flow effect of tapering. This should continue to pressure real rates higher and is a reason we remain short real 10y rates."