USD/RUB: Rouble to strengthen in the coming months – Standard Chartered

Economists at Standard Chartered expect the Russian rouble to strengthen in the coming months as geopolitical tensions are already priced in. Rising oil prices should help the Russian economy.

Central Bank of Russia to hike rates 

“We remain bullish on the RUB and continue to expect outperformance in the months ahead.”

“We believe geopolitical risk premium is now mostly priced in and markets will soon start pricing in Russia’s improving economic fundamentals.” 

“We see near-term upside possibilities for oil prices given global vaccination progress, OPEC+ policy and shrinking global inventories.” 

“While we see further upside to Russia’s inflation and expect a further rate hike in 2021, we expect the impact on the RUB to be minimal given cautious investor positioning in both FX and rate.”