Australia: The jobless rate extended the downtrend in July – UOB

UOB Group’s Economist Lee Sue Ann comments on the Australian labour market figures.

Key Takeaways

“The Australian economy added 2,200 jobs in July, much better than expectations for a loss of 43,100 jobs following the increase of 29,100 jobs previously. Unlike the case in May and June, employment gains were driven by part time employment, up 6,400 to 4,143,800 people. Full time employment decreased by 4,200 to 9,012,600 people. The participation rate decreased by 0.2 pts to 66.0%. Accompanying the rise in employment, the unemployment rate fell further to 4.6% from 4.9% previously. The jobless rate has dropped for eight straight months, from 6.9% in October 2020, and this is the lowest print for the unemployment rate since December 2008.”

“That said, the rapid decline in the unemployment rate looks set to come to an end, amid multiple COVID-19 lockdowns across the country, which threaten the economic backdrop… The tightening of restrictions through July and August could further reduce participation over coming months. We think the unemployment rate is now set to spike above 5% again in coming months, before resuming its downtrend by 2022, assuming vaccination rates increase and lockdowns become less necessary.”