USD/JPY risks a move to 109.50 – UOB

In opinion of FX Strategists at UOB Group, USD/JPY could slip back to the mid-109.00s in the next weeks.

Key Quotes

24-hour view: “Yesterday, we held the view that USD ‘could test 110.75 first before a pullback can be expected’. USD subsequently rose to 110.69 before staging a surprisingly sharp drop to 109.92. The rapid decline has room to extend lower but oversold conditions suggest that the major support at 109.50 is out of reach (there is another support at 109.70). Resistance is at 110.10 followed by 110.30.”

Next 1-3 weeks: “Our latest narrative was from yesterday (14 Jul, spot at 110.55) where we indicated that USD ‘is likely to trade between 110.00 and 111.15 for a period of time’. We did not anticipate the volatile price actions as USD dropped quickly below 110.00. Shorter-term downward momentum is beginning to improve and USD is likely to trade with a downward bias towards 109.50. At this stage, the odds for a sustained decline below this level are not high. The current mild downward pressure is deemed intact as long the ‘strong resistance’ at 110.55 is not breached.”