US: Retail sales probably fell modestly in April – TD Securities

Previewing next week's key macroeconomic data releases from the US, "retail sales probably fell modestly in April after a stimulus-payments-boosted 9.7% m/m surge in March," said TD Securities analysts.

Key quotes

"Our forecast implies a strong start to Q2 relative to the Q1 average, consistent with consumer spending adding significantly to GDP growth again. That said, we expect goods spending to keep edging down on a monthly basis in the months ahead as the boost from stimulus fades."

"We advise against extrapolating, consistent with Fed officials citing "transitory" factors, but a surge in used vehicle prices, along with strong reopening-related gains in airfares and hotel rates, likely led to sharp pickup in the core CPI. Moreover, base effects will add to the y/y data. We forecast 3.7%/2.5% y/y for total/core prices, up from 2.6%/1.6% in March."