EUR/NOK to break below the 10.00-10.30 range support by the summer – Nordea

A more hawkish Norges Bank did give support to NOK last week, but that support was short-lived as both oil prices and stock markets fell. Economists at Nordea see the cross moving in the range 10.00-10.30 in the near-term, but see more downside by the summer. 

Key quotes

“The broader risk sentiment in markets is currently tightly linked to movements in US long-term rates. If stock markets get spooked from higher US rates then NOK will end up being collateral damage – as we have seen in the past two months. But eventually US long-term rates will reach some kind of steady state – reducing the scope for much higher rate movements – and this should reduce the downwards pressure on stocks we have seen lately.” 

“Longer out, the global recovery will likely continue to give support to stocks, and the same holds for the oil price as well. Higher stocks, oil prices and rates in Norway is why we hold our view for EUR/NOK coming below 10.00 by the summer. But in the near-term, though, EUR/NOK is likely to move about sideways in the range 10.00-10.30.”