21 Jul 2014
Limited changes in positioning among specs - TDS
FXStreet (Bali) - The FX Team at TD Securties reviews the latest changes in the CFTC Commitments of Traders Report for the week ending Tuesday, July 15th, noting limited changes in market positioning among specs.
Key Quotes
"IMM data for the week through July 15th showed relatively limited changes in market positioning among speculative investors. The net outcome, however, is a small reduction in the market’s aggregate long USD position versus the major currencies to the equivalent of USD5.9bn (from a USD6.4bn aggregate long position in the prior week)."
"Investors added marginally to the IMM’s accumulating EUR short position in the latest week, taking the overall bet against the single currency to a net –62.8k contracts (-59.2k last), the biggest EUR short since mid-2013. Developments this week, with the spot market looking somewhat soft and testing the 1.35 area may encourage more net short position accumulation. Investors cut net GBP longs modestly to +38.7k contracts (from +41.6k last week) and held net short CHF positions steady at –6.2k contracts—still small overall but the past three weeks have nevertheless seen spec accounts short the CHF the most in a year."
"Investors boosted net CAD longs by around a half again over the prior week’s position, taking the market’s net CAD long to +15.6k contracts (from +10.3k); over the past three weeks, the IMM has built the first net long CAD position since early 2013 and the accumulation is starting to look a little more meaningful now. We do not believe the trend will be sustained, however, and see little reason to build CAD long exposure any more aggressively (we would, in fact, rather be positioned the other way). Investors seem to like the commodity currencies overall though; net long AUD positions rose modestly this week (to +39.7k contracts, from +36.6k last), as did net long NZD positions (+15.4k from +14.4k contracts)."
"Investors covered some of the still substantial net short JPY position that has been sustained over the past few months, cutting exposure to –62.9k contracts (from –66.3k) this week. Speculators are keeping positioning in the MXN very stable, meanwhile; the net long position this week of +69.3k contracts has been more or less unchanged in five weeks now."
Key Quotes
"IMM data for the week through July 15th showed relatively limited changes in market positioning among speculative investors. The net outcome, however, is a small reduction in the market’s aggregate long USD position versus the major currencies to the equivalent of USD5.9bn (from a USD6.4bn aggregate long position in the prior week)."
"Investors added marginally to the IMM’s accumulating EUR short position in the latest week, taking the overall bet against the single currency to a net –62.8k contracts (-59.2k last), the biggest EUR short since mid-2013. Developments this week, with the spot market looking somewhat soft and testing the 1.35 area may encourage more net short position accumulation. Investors cut net GBP longs modestly to +38.7k contracts (from +41.6k last week) and held net short CHF positions steady at –6.2k contracts—still small overall but the past three weeks have nevertheless seen spec accounts short the CHF the most in a year."
"Investors boosted net CAD longs by around a half again over the prior week’s position, taking the market’s net CAD long to +15.6k contracts (from +10.3k); over the past three weeks, the IMM has built the first net long CAD position since early 2013 and the accumulation is starting to look a little more meaningful now. We do not believe the trend will be sustained, however, and see little reason to build CAD long exposure any more aggressively (we would, in fact, rather be positioned the other way). Investors seem to like the commodity currencies overall though; net long AUD positions rose modestly this week (to +39.7k contracts, from +36.6k last), as did net long NZD positions (+15.4k from +14.4k contracts)."
"Investors covered some of the still substantial net short JPY position that has been sustained over the past few months, cutting exposure to –62.9k contracts (from –66.3k) this week. Speculators are keeping positioning in the MXN very stable, meanwhile; the net long position this week of +69.3k contracts has been more or less unchanged in five weeks now."