EUR/USD to test of the 200-DMA at 1.1816 – Credit Suisse

EUR/USD is expected to see a closing break below support at 1.1952/45 for a fall to its 200-day average, currently at 1.1816, the Credit Suisse analyst team reports.

See: EUR/USD to strengthen with vaccine rollout in the second quarter – CIBC

Key quotes

“We continue to look for a clear break below  the February low and 23.6% retracement of the entire 2020/2021 bull trend at 1.1952/45 for a fall to support at 1.1895/85 next – the lower end of the downtrend channel from early January and the 61.8% retracement of the November/January rally – which we look to hold at first.”

“Below 1.1895/85 in due course should see a move to 1.1845, then the 200-day average at 1.1816, where we look for a better floor on a closing basis. Should weakness directly extend, we see support next at the 38.2% retracement of the entire 2020/2021 uptrend at 1.1695.” 

“Near-term resistance moves to 1.1979, then 1.1991, with better resistance seen at 1.2022/54, which we look to cap. Above 1.2082 though is needed to ease the immediate downside bias.”