AUD/USD to target 0.82 by end-2021 – ANZ

The aussie has continued its upward charge as a flag-bearer for the global reflation trade. Analysts at ANZ Bank maintain the year-end target of AUD/USD at 0.82 and expect the AUD to outperform most significant crosses as the global recovery matures

Key quotes

“Domestically, despite a couple of COVID-19 scares, labour market data and business conditions continue to surprise to the upside. Improving data and easy financial conditions globally suggest domestic policy will emerge as a tailwind for the AUD, as an extension of the RBA’s QE program is drawn into question.”

“Globally, we expect risk appetite and confidence in the reflation dynamics to be the key driver for the currency. A broad vaccine rollout is expected to evolve into a strong growth rebound as key industries reopen.” 

“The sustainability of the commodity trend remains the primary downside risk to the AUD, as Chinese policymakers raise restrictions on property investment and engage in a net tightening in policy over the medium-term.”

“We maintain our AUD/USD year-end target at 0.82 and expect the AUD to outperform most G10 peers as the global recovery matures.”