US November Retail Sales Preview: Poor data to exacerbate USD weakness

Retail Sales are forecast to drop in November for the first time in seven months, a development that could reverberate through a US economy still unsteady from almost a year of pandemic lockdowns and unemployment. The sharp decline of the dollar over the past two weeks could be extended on gloomy Retail Sales data, Joseph Trevisani, an Analyst at FXStreet, reports.

Key quotes

“The Retail Sales Control Group that closely mimics the consumption component of the Bureau of Economic Analysis' GDP calculation, is forecast to gain 0.2% on the month after a 0.1% increase in October. The Retail Sales ex-Autos category is projected to rise by 0.1% in November following 0.2% prior.”

“A retreat in consumption could not happen at a worse time for the retail industry. Many stores depend on the November and December holiday season for most or all of their annual profits.”

“If lockdowns and their attendant unemployment and layoffs, lead to diminished Retail Sales in November and December the ramifications for the US economy and the dollar could make the New Year a very different place than the last six months.”