When are the UK jobs and how could they affect GBP/USD?

UK Jobs report overview

Early Tuesday, the UK’s Office for National Statistics (ONS) will release the September month Claimant Count figures together with the Unemployment Rate in the three months to July at 06:00 AM GMT. Although Brexit, coronavirus (COVID-19) and stimulus headlines are likely to keep the driver’s seat, the recent doubts over whether the return of activities contributed to the employment highlight importance of today’s employment day for GBP/USD traders.

The UK labor market report is expected to show that the average weekly earnings, including bonuses, in the three months to August, to ease from the previous -1.0% to -05%, while ex-bonuses, the wages are seen improving from 0.2% to 0.6% during the state period.

The number of people seeking jobless benefits, namely the Claimant Count Change, is expected to increase from 73.7K previous to 78.8K in September. Further, the ILO unemployment rate is expected to pick up from 4.1% to 4.3% during the three months ending in August.

Deviation impact on GBP/USD

Readers can find FX Street's proprietary deviation impact map of the event below. As observed the reaction is likely to remain confined around 20-pips in deviations up to + or -2, although in some cases, if notable enough, a deviation can fuel movements over 60-70 pips.

How could they affect GBP/USD?

GBP/USD snaps four-day run-up while flashing 0.14% intraday losses with 1.3045 level ahead of Tuesday’s London open. In addition to the US dollar’s recovery, mainly based on the risk-off mood, fears of hard Brexit and further lockdowns in Northern England also weigh on the quite.

On Monday, UK PM Johnson came out with the three-tier system of activity restriction to tame the pandemic’s spread in the nation. However, Reuters quotes Culture Secretary Oliver Dowden while saying, “UK needs further curbs to get COVID-19 under control.”

Elsewhere, the European Union (EU) bloc members agreed to have tough Brexit enforcement plans, per Financial Times (FT), after the UK disrespected the previous norms with their Internal Market Bill (IMB). It’s worth mentioning that Britain and Europe both are struggling to have a Brexit deal before the October 15 deadline. Though, both parties have gained a little success.

Hence, while there are fewer scopes for any positives from the risk catalysts, namely the Brexit and COVID-19 headlines, GBP/USD traders will be more disappointed and can magnify the recent weakness towards breaking the 1.3000 psychological magnet.

Technically, GBP/USD takes a U-turn from the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the September month’s downside, which in turn suggests further weakness to come. Though, the 1.3000 round-figure and a joint of 200-bar SMA and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level near 1.2985 will challenge the bears during the pair’s further weakness. Alternatively, an upside clearance of 50% Fibonacci retracement level near 1.3080 will find it difficult to cross the mentioned channel’s upper line, currently around 1.3105, during the additional rise

Key notes

GBP/USD Forecast: Dollar bears leading the way up

GBP/USD Price Analysis: Eases from 50% Fibonacci retracement to attack 1.3050

About UK jobs

The UK Average Earnings released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) is a key short-term indicator of how levels of pay are changing within the UK economy. Generally speaking, the positive earnings growth anticipates positive (or bullish) for the GBP, whereas a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).