When is the US monthly jobs report (NFP) and how could it affect EUR/USD?

US monthly jobs report overview

Friday's US economic docket highlights the release of the closely watched US monthly jobs data, popularly known as NFP. The report is scheduled to be released at 12:30GMT and is expected to show that the US economy added 850K jobs in September, lower than the previous month's reading of 1.371 million. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is anticipated to have edged lower to 8.2% from 8.4% recorded in August. Average hourly earnings are estimated to show a modest rise of 0.2% MoM and increased 4.8% on yearly basis.

Conversely, analysts at RBC are looking for a stronger headline NFP print of 1.2 million and also see the unemployment rate to fall to 7.6%. “Friday’s US labour market report is expected to show further gains in employment, we are expecting a rise of 1200K. Though that would still leave the number of jobs lost at more than 10 million from February. We are expecting the unemployment rate to dip lower again to 7.6%.”

How could the data affect EUR/USD?

A stronger-than-expected reading might provide a modest lift to the US dollar. Alternatively, a weaker print might further dent the already weaker global risk sentiment and drive some haven flows towards the greenback. Nevertheless, the EUR/USD pair seems poised to extend the previous day's retracement slide from weekly tops and retest the 1.1670 horizontal support.

Meanwhile, Yohay Elam, FXStreet's own Analyst provided important technical levels to trade the EUR/USD pair: "Support awaits at 1.1685, which was a swing low earlier in the week. It is followed by 1.1625, a support line from last week, followed by the previous week's trough 1.1610. Resistance awaits at 1.1740, which was a low point in mid-September, followed by 1.1770, the weekly high. Next, 1.1785 and 1.1830 await EUR/USD."

Key Notes

   •  Nonfarm Payrolls Preview: Eagerly waiting for an upbeat report

   •  US Nonfarm Payrolls Report September Preview: A challenge to define normality

   •  EUR/USD Forecast: Euro poorly positioned ahead of NFP after Trump's catches coronavirus

About the US monthly jobs report

The nonfarm payrolls released by the US Department of Labor presents the number of new jobs created during the previous month, in all non-agricultural business. The monthly changes in payrolls can be extremely volatile, due to its high relation with economic policy decisions made by the Central Bank. The number is also subject to strong reviews in the upcoming months, and those reviews also tend to trigger volatility in the forex board. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish), although previous months reviews and the unemployment rate are as relevant as the headline figure.