USD/JPY fails at the 105.85 three-month downtrend, targets 104.00 – Commerzbank

USD/JPY is holding below the three-month downtrend and 55-day ma at 105.85. Karen Jones, Team Head FICC Technical Analysis Research at Commerzbank, expects the pair to slide towards the 104.00 neighborhood. 

Key quotes

“USD/JPY is failing at the 55-day ma at 105.87 and the short-term downtrend at 105.85, and will ideally slide lower from here. A negative bias will remain entrenched below here.”

“The 104.00 support guards the 103.43/78.6% Fibonacci retracement, which is the last defence for the 101.18 March low.”

“The market will need to regain 107.05, the recent high, to trigger a move to the 200-day ma at 107.56.”