WTI Crude to move close to $44 after $38/$42 short-term trade range – TDS

Bart Melek, head of commodity strategy at TD Securities, analyzes the last inventory data and concludes that with the moderating demand the WTI crude should drift lower. Nonetheless, he expects the black gold to trade near $44 in the end.

Key quotes

“Crude inventories are up a much larger-than-expected 4.89 million bbls (consensus was calling for a draw of 2.2 million). Imports jumped 374k b/d, with exports growing 450k b/d and production was up a modest 100k b/d. Implied demand for crude fell a disappointing 1.3 million bpd.”

“With OPEC+ committing to increase supply to match growing demand, demand slumping likely to the spread of COVID in part of the US and higher inventories, WTI crude could well drift lower from the current $41.47/bbl.” 

“With US production not showing additional reductions yet and the rate of demand growth likely improving in the US in the coming weeks, now that authorities have started to seriously encourage measures such as the use of masks to limit COVID spread, prices should move back to the top of the trading range. I expect WTI to trade in a range between $38-42/bbl, in the near-term and then move closer to $44/bbl.”