China: Fiscal stimulus to add 3.2ppt to GDP growth in 2020 – Standard Chartered

Economists at Standard Chartered Bank quantify the impact of the Chinese fiscal stimulus as the 2020 budget amounts to a fiscal stimulus of 5.2% of GDP, likely contributing 3.2ppt to GDP growth. USD/CNY is flat today, sitting at 7.1375. 

See: China points direction for post-pandemic world

Key quotes

“According to the 2020 budget, China will increase the broad-based deficit to 10.8% of GDP this year (from an actual deficit of 5.6% in 2019). This comprises a general public deficit of 3.6% (the officially defined budget deficit), a stabilisation and carryover funds deficit of 2.9%, and a government funds account deficit of 4.3%.” 

“The budget amounts to a fiscal stimulus of 5.2% of GDP in 2020, as measured by the increase in the broad deficit. This is much larger than the fiscal stimulus of 0.9% of GDP in 2019, but smaller than 7% in 2009, at the peak of the global financial crisis.” 

“We estimate that fiscal stimulus will contribute 3.2ppt to GDP growth in 2020, of which 1.2ppt comes from reduced government income and 2ppt comes from increased government spending.”