Canada GDP: Flat was then – BMO

Canadian real GDP was flat in February in the last month before the economy was hit with the full force of the pandemic and shutdowns, Douglas Porter from the bank of Montreal informs.

Key quotes

“Just prior to the pandemic, strikes and blockades cut GDP by 0.2 ppts, holding output flat. Combined with the small upward revision in January, this leaves StatsCan's initial estimate of a 10% annualized decline in Q1 on track.”

“We continue to look for a much deeper setback in Q2, when GDP is expected to fall nearly 14%.”

“In a separate release, payroll jobs fell 35,000 in February, cutting the y/y trend to 1.2%. There were declines in both factories and transportation. More timely, March producer prices fell 0.9% (and down 2.4% y/y), amid the steep drop in oil prices.”