25 Jun 2014
French business confidence data disappoints - ING
FXStreet (Łódź) - Julien Manceaux from ING comments on the French Business climate data, which showed a slight deterioration from 99 to 98, against forecasts of remaining unchanged.
Key quotes
"Whereas French manufacturing confidence had been hovering around 100 since December 2013, it stalled in June as INSEE data showed this morning. At 97.7 it is back below the 98.0 threshold reached in October (which was the highest level since September 2011)."
"In June, confidence in the general outlook deteriorated strongly and stands at its lowest level since last July, when the first signs of the recovery were announced by François Hollande."
"Order books had been the bright side of the survey in recent months, looking at their best since 2011, but they deteriorated strongly in May and June."
" Moreover, the INSEE survey also shows that the price outlook remains grim as pricing power has deteriorated further in June. For the coming months, it therefore appears that low inflationary pressures will continue to prevail in France with subdued production figures."
"The decline of the main confidence index, from 99.3 to 97.7 confirmed what June PMI indicators showed yesterday: that economic activity growth could be slightly negative at the turn of the second quarter. This puts the current Q2 growth forecast at risk (the strong rebound that had been expected is now far from certain), and 2014 growth altogether (given the stagnation registered in the first quarter)."
Key quotes
"Whereas French manufacturing confidence had been hovering around 100 since December 2013, it stalled in June as INSEE data showed this morning. At 97.7 it is back below the 98.0 threshold reached in October (which was the highest level since September 2011)."
"In June, confidence in the general outlook deteriorated strongly and stands at its lowest level since last July, when the first signs of the recovery were announced by François Hollande."
"Order books had been the bright side of the survey in recent months, looking at their best since 2011, but they deteriorated strongly in May and June."
" Moreover, the INSEE survey also shows that the price outlook remains grim as pricing power has deteriorated further in June. For the coming months, it therefore appears that low inflationary pressures will continue to prevail in France with subdued production figures."
"The decline of the main confidence index, from 99.3 to 97.7 confirmed what June PMI indicators showed yesterday: that economic activity growth could be slightly negative at the turn of the second quarter. This puts the current Q2 growth forecast at risk (the strong rebound that had been expected is now far from certain), and 2014 growth altogether (given the stagnation registered in the first quarter)."