Russia: Open room for 50 bps cut – TDS

The most acute phase of RUB weakening is likely to be behind while CBR Governor hinted at the possibility of a bigger rate cut this week, per TD Securities. USD/RUB is sitting at 74.4605.

Key quotes

“We believe that to be felt by the economy, a minimum of 50bps should be implemented immediately.”

“CBR Governor Nabiullina said that the CBR usually favors moves of 25bps at a time, but occasionally opts fo 50bps. This seems to strengthen our conviction that a larger cut is in the offing.”

“We expect weaker RUB vs USD in Q2. The RUB will continue for the time being to be subject to general market sentiment, reacting as a high beta depending on the direction of oil prices, but unlikely to test the recent lows.”