China: Bad but no disaster – TDS

China's March data dump and Q1 20 GDP was not as bad as feared, according to economists at TD Securities. USD/CNY is trading at 7.0802.

Key quotes

“China's Q1 GDP fell -6.8% y/y (TD -5.6%, mkt -6.0%), -9.8% q/q (TD -9.5%, mkt -12%), marking the weakest print since at least 1992. However, there was little surprise in this outcome.”

“March industrial production fell less than expected -1.1% y/y (mkt -6.2%) while the unemployment rate fell to 5.9% from 6.2%. This reveals some success on the supply side.”

“Retail sales dropped more than expected -15.8% y/y. Weaker than expected retail sales highlight significant consumer caution even as the economy opens up.”