New Zealand CPI Preview: Downhill from here – ANZ

March quarter CPI figures will be released next Monday (20 April). Economists at ANZ Bank forecast the figures while the NZD/USD trades at 0.5967.

Key quotes

Headline CPI is expected to have lifted 0.5% q/q in the March quarter, with annual inflation accelerating to 2.2% from 1.9% in Q4.

Non-tradable inflation is expected to print at 1.0% q/q (3.0% y/y), with tradable inflation at -0.3% q/q (1.1% y/y).

“We expect annual headline inflation to slow to just 1% by the end of the year and remain below this level for all of 2021, with only a gradual recovery thereafter.”

“It’s likely that the Q1 CPI read will get little market attention, given the absence of policy implications. Nonetheless, the data will be very interesting and are set to become much more so over the coming quarters.”