When are the RBA minutes and how might they affect AUD/USD?

Early Tuesday morning, at 00:30 GMT, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will release a minutes statement of the latest monetary policy meeting held during early-December. The latest weakness in Aussie data questions the central bank’s decision of no rate change and statements that the recent rate cuts are supporting employment and income growth. As a result, traders will seek clues to further rate cuts in 2020. However, the downbeat numbers have started rolling on after the RBA decision and hence the minutes might avoid being downbeat.

Westpac highlights the importance of the details while saying,

The RBA Board’s December meeting was held a day before Australia’s soft Q3 GDP report which showed growth driven by government spending and net exports, with private demand -0.4%yr. The statement on the day as the Board held steady at 0.75% repeated that, “the Australian economy appears to have reached a gentle turning point” and added that, “the long and variable lags in the transmission of monetary policy” argued for a steady hand. The minutes at 11:30 am Syd/8:30am Sing/HK should expand on this broadly upbeat stance. One key line to watch for is whether the minutes repeat November’s line “a case could be made to ease monetary policy at this meeting,” even though the arguments rejecting a cut were then listed.

How could the minutes affect AUD/USD?

While recently downbeat data from Australia can question the impact on RBA minutes, market's overall optimism backed by the phase-one deal could keep buyers hopeful. Hence, any clues to a halt in further rate cuts in 2020 might not refrain from pushing the AUD/USD pair towards November month high.

Technically, 0.6860/65 area including 10-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) offers immediate support to the pair. Alternatively, the November month high, surrounding 0.6930, acts as the near-term key resistance.

Key Notes

AUD/USD struggles to justify Monday’s Doji ahead of RBA minutes

AUD/USD Forecast: Declines limited as long as above 0.6865

About the RBA minutes

The minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia meetings are published two weeks after the interest rate decision. The minutes give a full account of the policy discussion, including differences of view. They also record the votes of the individual members of the Committee. Generally speaking, if the RBA is hawkish about the inflationary outlook for the economy, then the markets see a higher possibility of a rate increase, and that is positive for the AUD.