China: Signs of a tentative bottoming of economy – TDS

Analysts at TD Securities note that China’s industrial production increased by 6.2% YoY in November (market 5.0%, TD 5.1%) while retail sales increased by 8.0% (market 7.6%).

Key Quotes

“Fixed assets (ex-rural) grew by 5.2% YTD y/y (mkt 5.2%). As reflected by stronger November imports data, gains in the Official and Caixin manufacturing PMIs, aggregate financing and new yuan loans, there has been some tentative signs of improvement in the manufacturing sector.”

“Gains in the new orders and output components of the November manufacturing PMI also pointed to an improvement in industrial production. This is encouraging news, highlighting some signs of a tentative bottoming in China's economy. The remove of the Dec tariffs threat and roll back of some previous tariffs suggests scope for further limited improvement.”