NZD/USD again below 100-day EMA, eyes on ANZ data

• NZD/USD fails to sustain the break of 100-day EMA.
• Broad USD strength, a lack of directives from RBNZ FSR exert downside pressure.
• ANZ numbers, trade headlines can entertain markets on Thanksgiving Day.

NZD/USD revisits familiar territory below 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) while taking rounds to 0.6420 at the start of Thursday’s Asian trading session. Traders now await New Zealand’s Business Confidence and Activity Outlook numbers from the Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ).

In addition to the recently increased odds favoring a successful phase-one trade between the United States (US) and China, upbeat statistics from the US also helped the US dollar (USD) to register broad strength. The greenback’s gauge, measuring the USD against a basket of six major currencies, surged to two week’s high on Wednesday.

An upward revision to the third quarter (Q3) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and better than expected Durable Goods Orders snatched the headlines while soft figures of Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) and the core readings were largely ignored. Further, figures of initial and continuing jobless claims also slipped under anticipation and favored the US currency’s rise.

On the trade front, markets are now gearing up for the initial trade deal between the global superpowers as speculations mount that the US and China are pushing towards the final stages and have texts of the phase one deal, as per the Wall Street Journal (WSJ).

Elsewhere, downbeat Industrial Profits from China and Moody’s call for upcoming challenges to the Chinese housing market joined the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) bi-annual Financial Stability Review (FSR) that failed to offer any major update. The RBNZ’s FSR left key Loan to Value Ratio (LVR) unchanged while keeping importance of the December 05 meeting.

ANZ’s Business Conditions and Activity Outlook for November is in the immediate focus of the traders while the US markets are off for the Thanksgiving Day holiday. The forecast suggests the Business Confidence to recover to -30.8 from -42.4 prior while Activity Outlook could decline further to -3.6% from -3.5% earlier readouts.

Technical Analysis

Despite slipping back below 100-day EMA, prices are above a two-week-old rising support line, at 0.6418, a break of which can recall a 21-day EMA level of 0.6400 on the chart. Alternatively, buyers look for entry beyond the monthly top surrounding 0.6465/70.