US: Strike to have little effect on the unemployment rate – Societe Generale

Analysts at Societe Generale offer a sneak peek at what to expect from Friday’s main event risk – the US Non-farm Payrolls data, due to be released at 1230 GMT.

Key Quotes:

“UAWGM strike. In addition, plant closures may have curtailed hiring among suppliers and supporting businesses.

Weekly jobless claims are holding their trend of 215k per week, suggesting that layoffs have not peaked at related businesses as a result of the strike.

The average workweek and wages could be pulled down moderately by the strike.

We do not expect the strike to influence the unemployment rate.

Forecast +90k job additions, unemployment rate at 3.5% and average hourly earnings at 0.2% m/m.”