UK: Weakness in CPI amidst political chaos – TDS

Analysts at TD Securities note that this morning's UK CPI report was a touch weaker than expected, with headline CPI at 1.7% YoY (Mkt 1.8%), although in line with the BoE's forecast from the August IR.

Key Quotes

“Core CPI was in line with consensus though at 1.7% y/y.”

“Brexit developments are, of course, the main driver of the day. While last night held reports that a draft deal could be presented this morning, talks reportedly broke down at around 10am BST.”

“Bloomberg reported that the negotiations collapsed amid DUP resistance to the deal, and that the EU now sees a Brexit deal as impossible unless the UK shifts its position further. While this doesn't mean that a deal before the end of the month is impossible, it does mean that having a deal before tomorrows' EU Leaders' Summit begins is now essentially off the table (barring a miraculous turnaround). This means that the Benn Act comes into play this weekend, with PM Johnson mandated to write a letter to the EU, requesting an Article 50 extension.”