German IFO survey fell more than expected in August – TD Securities

The TD Securities Analysts offer their afterthoughts on the German IFO Survey after the German business morale fell to the lowest levels since 2012 in August.

Key Quotes:

“The August German IFO survey fell more than expected, dropping to 94.3 (mkt 95.0) from a slightly upwardly revised 95.8 in July. Both the expectations and current assessment indices fell more than expected, to 91.3 (mkt 91.8) and 97.3 (mkt 98.8), respectively.

While the forward-looking indicators in the latest PMI indicated some weakness in the IFO, the survey is now languishing at its weakest level in close to 7 years, reinforcing expectations that the economy will slide into recession after a Q2 contraction in growth.

Worsening trade war headlines suggest little respite for German manufacturers. EUR was already under pressure and maintained its declines after the release.”