AUD to outperform CAD over the next 12 months - CIBC

Analysts at CIBC,  consider that the Canadian Dollar may have peaked against the Australian Dollar if trade tensions ease, with domestic demand in Australia more resilient.

Key Quotes: 

“Commodity currencies have been generally weaker versus the US$ recently as trade and global growth uncertainties have risen. Against the Aussie dollar, the loonie recently touched its highest since 2010. Yet while that move makes sense given Australia’s greater exposure to the Chinese economy, domestic trends in the Canadian versus Australian economies suggest there’s more underlying strength in the latter.”

“Not only has annual GDP growth in Australia slowed less since its most recent peak, but also a greater portion of the easing can be pinned on exports and inventories rather than final domestic demand which has weakened noticeably in Canada.”  

“Should trade tensions ease or at least not escalate further, we expect AUD to outperform CAD over the next 12 months.”