Canada: Data started to normalize – TD Securities

TD Securities analysts point out that while the Canadian economy continues to outperform, data has started to normalize and TD’s data surprise index has tipped into negative territory for the first time since April.

Key Quotes

“While we continue to track Q2 GDP of 3%, above the 2.3% projection from the July MPR, recent data has not been as robust. International trade for June showed a sharp correction in trade flows, and the July LFS revealed the largest employment decline since mid-2018 (alongside higher wage growth).”

“Core CPI measures continue to sit near 2.0% on average but we are skeptical that the Canadian economy can maintain this performance going forward and we remain comfortable with our forecast for a 25bp cut in January 2020 as the global slowdown starts to weigh more heavily on the domestic outlook.”