China: Export turnaround is puzzling – ING

Iris Pang, economist at ING, notes that China's exports jumped 3.3% year-on-year in July from -1.3% a month ago. But the devil is in the detail. 

Key Quotes

“Unusual items appeared to be very supportive to exports. China exported more coal (64% month-on-month), which could be due to a surplus in coal mining, as well as more fertiliser (42% MoM). It even exported more crude oil (56% MoM), which is very unusual because China's crude exports had fallen 61.8% YoY year-to-date.”

“It is possible that these exports are going to the Belt and Road economies which, if true, could be the start of a new trend for China's exports.”

“The more typical export items put in a fairly average performance. Handsets grew 9% MoM but were down 15.8% YoY YTD and auto-process computers fell 8.0% MoM. Combining the two, we don't hold a very positive view of China's exports because these two items usually comprise much of the growth.”