RBA: Intended pause to be tested by the data - ANZ

ANZ analysts suggest that the RBA has an easing bias and will act “if needed.”

Key quotes

“The explicit use of this term suggests a period of observation before the Bank acts again. We aren’t so sure, given where we think the Bank’s forecasts for the August Statement of Monetary Policy will end up.”

“We see little alternative to further easing to achieve the 4.5% target for unemployment the RBA has set itself. Of course, that doesn’t rule out the Bank reaching the same conclusion but still pausing.”

“We take a look at the detailed employment by industry data. The solid headline employment gain over the three months to May 2019 was underpinned by four industries, which added more than 30,000 workers each: manufacturing, administrative and support services, education and training, and construction.”