When is the US ISM Manufacturing PMI and how could it affect EUR/USD?
US ISM Manufacturing PMI Overview
The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) will release its latest manufacturing business survey result, also known as the ISM Manufacturing PMI at 14:00 GMT this Monday. Consensus estimate point to a further deterioration in the manufacturing sector and the index is seen falling to a multi-year low level of 51.0 in June as compared to 52.1 in the previous month.
Meanwhile, Analysts at TD Securities are looking for a new monthly decline in the US manufacturing ISM index to 51.0, as they expect ongoing trade headwinds to have affected business sentiment in the June survey. “The average of the ISM-adjusted regional surveys signaled a 2pt decline from the May levels to 51.9, with retreats in five out of the six published surveys we track. We note, however, that most of these surveys were negatively biased by the US-Mexico trade spat given some responses had to be returned early in the month. That said, a recent spate of uninspiring growth in core durable goods orders and a weak Markit PMI survey also boost the odds for a downside surprise in June, in our view.”
Deviation impact on EUR/USD
Readers can find FX Street's proprietary deviation impact map of the event below. As observed, the reaction in case of a relative deviation of -0.74 or +0.67 is likely to be in the range of 21-22 pips in the first 15-minutes and could stretch to around 51-63 pips in the subsequent 4-hours.
How could it affect EUR/USD?
Ahead of the release, Yohay Elam - FXStreet's own Analyst offers important technical levels to trade the major and writes – “Initial support awaits at 1.1320, which the pair briefly breached earlier. The 100 SMA awaits at 1.1310, and the next level to watch is 1.1270, which was a stepping stone on the way up last week. It is followed by 1.1250 and 1.1200.”
“Looking up, 1.1350 turns into resistance, and last week's stubborn cap of 1.1390 is next. The three-month high of 1.1410 is critical resistance. 1.1445 awaits further up,” he added further.
Key Notes
• US Manufacturing PMI Preview: Trade is the measure of all things
• EUR/USD Forecast: Three reasons for the downfall – levels to watch
• EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Rising odds for a test of the 21-day SMA at 1.1296
About the US ISM manufacturing PMI
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Index shows business conditions in the US manufacturing sector. It is a significant indicator of the overall economic condition in the US. A result above 50 is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, whereas a result below 50 is seen as negative (or bearish).