Russia: CBR likely to cut its policy rate by 25bps - TDS

In line with the almost unanimous consensus, analysts at TD Securities are expecting the CBR to cut its policy rate, the Key Rate, by 25bps to 7.5% at today's Board meeting.

Key Quotes

“At the April meeting the CBR said that a rate cut could happen in Q2-Q3 and Governor Nabiullina has recently said a cut could happen at today's meeting, saying that recent data "confirms that inflation is evolving tangibly better than expected".”

“With USDRUB fairly stable and the global financial environment turning distinctly more dovish, we see little in the way of a cut. The press statement should give us an idea how quickly the CBR could cut again. We think they will be fairly cautious and probably skip a meeting before cutting again in September.”