UK: Focus on politics - Rabobank

Rabobank analysts point out that in the UK, today will see Parliament vote on an opposition motion to block the possibility of a No-Deal Brexit on 31 October and will be a key event for markets.

Key Quotes

“It appears to be a close call whether enough Tory rebels will side with Labour and the Lib-Dems to pass the motion. If the government wins then there is a very real risk that Hard Brexit is less than six months away under a future PM Boris Johnson (who a recent opinion poll shows would see the Tories on 37%, Labour on 22%, the Lib-Dems on 20%, and the Brexit Party on 14%).”

“Yet even if the motion passes the UK alone cannot guarantee no Hard Brexit if it keeps wasting time, as it is now: the decision to extend (and pretend) is then passed back to the EU once again.”