When are the UK jobs and how could they affect GBP/USD?

UK Jobs report overview

The UK labor market report is expected to show that the average weekly earnings, including bonuses, in the three months to April, are expected to accelerate by 3.4%, while ex-bonuses, the wages are expected to rise 3.3% in the reported period.

The number of people seeking jobless benefits increased by 24.7k in May. The ILO unemployment rate is expected to tick higher to 3.9% during the period vs. 3.8% last.

How could they affect GBP/USD?

A negative surprise in the UK’s wage growth numbers could trigger a fresh round of selling in the pound. The Cable could test the 1.2655 (Jun 11 low). A break below the last, exposes 1.2618 (daily classic S2/ Fib S3).

On upbeat readings, the GBP/USD pair could bounce-back for a re-test of the 5-day MA at 1.2705, above which the immediate resistances lie at 1.2728 (Jun 11 high) and 1.2764 (Jun 7 high/ daily classic R2).

“The pound has been unable to capitalize on the weakness of the US dollar – exposing its weakness. Other currencies such as the euro have been able to hold onto their gains against the greenback despite its own issues. Expectations for the UK jobs report seem too high after the weak GDP numbers. GBP/USD has exposed its vulnerability and may extend its falls on a disappointing outcome,” Yohay Elam, Senior Analyst at FXStreet explains.

Key Notes

UK: Unemployment rate likely to fall a multi-decade low of 3.7% - TDS

GBP/USD forecast: Remains vulnerable below 1.2700 handle ahead of UK jobs data

GBP/USD will find it hard to recapture 1.2700 — Confluence Detector

About UK jobs

The UK Average Earnings released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) is a key short-term indicator of how levels of pay are changing within the UK economy. Generally speaking, the positive earnings growth anticipates positive (or bullish) for the GBP, whereas a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).