When is the US ISM Manufacturing PMI and how could it affect EUR/USD?
US ISM Manufacturing PMI Overview
The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) will release its latest manufacturing business survey result, also known as the ISM Manufacturing PMI at 14:00 GMT this Monday. Consensus estimate point to a modest rebound to 53.00 in May, from the previous month's reading of 52.8 - the lowest since October 2016.
However, analysts at TD Securities are looking for a modest decline in the US ISM manufacturing index to 52.5 (market: 53.0) in May as they expect trade-related headwinds to remain a major obstacle for recovery in the short-term.
Deviation impact on EUR/USD
Readers can find FX Street's proprietary deviation impact map of the event below. As observed, the reaction in case of a relative deviation of +0.52 or -0.69 is likely to be in the range of 11-18 pips in the first 15-minutes and could stretch to around 29-34 pips in the subsequent 4-hours.
How could it affect EUR/USD?
Ahead of the release, Pablo Piovano - FXStreet's own Editor offers important technical levels to trade the major, “the 55-day SMA at 1.1220 emerges as the immediate target in case EUR/USD gains further upside momentum. This important area of resistance is reinforced by a Fibo retracement of the 2019 drop as well as May’s peaks. However, while the 8-month resistance line continues to cap the upside, another test of the 1.1100 neighbourhood should remain well on the cards in the near to medium term.”
Key Notes
• ISM Manufacturing PMI Preview: stable at moderate expansion
• EUR/USD Forecast: Room for extra recovery… ahead of extra losses
• EUR/USD still expected to test 1.1100/05 – UOB
About the US ISM manufacturing PMI
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Index shows business conditions in the US manufacturing sector. It is a significant indicator of the overall economic condition in the US. A result above 50 is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, whereas a result below 50 is seen as negative (or bearish).