Australia’s Liberal-National Coalition unexpectedly returns to office - ANZ

Cherelle Murphy, Analyst at Australia New Zealand (ANZ) Banking Group offers his afterthoughts on an unexpected Australian general election outcome.

Key Quotes:

“The ambitious policy agenda taken to the electorate by the Australian Labor Party was rejected at the weekend and the Morrison Government was returned. It is not yet clear whether there will be a minority government, as the Coalition so far has 74 seats, which is short of the 76 required for a majority. 

There is also one Green and five independents currently, including Bob Katter, Andrew Wilkie, Rebekha Sharkie, Zali Steggall and Helen Haines.  If there is a minority government, the Coalition will have to negotiate with the cross benchers on contentious legislation. The Senate count, whilst not final, looks like 34 Coalition senators, 27 Labor, nine Greens, two One Nation, two Centre Alliance, Jacqui Lambie and Cory Bernadi. The government will need five additional votes to secure the 39 votes to pass contentious legislation in the Senate, including its tax cuts.

Most of the non-majors, other than the Greens, lean towards Coalition positions. Fiscal policy will be almost unchanged from the most recent Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Outlook given the Coalition’s election commitments had a very small net (positive) AUD102m impact on the underlying cash balance.”