AUD: No barrier to downside - ANZ

According to analysts at ANZ, it’s not too late to be short AUD as they continue to think that a cut is on the cards next week and history tells us that RBA easing in similar environments still produced a persistent negative reaction in the currency.

Key Quotes

“The present level of short positioning in futures would typically temper the downside, but we think this is less of a factor as other indicators like the risk reversal are pointing in the opposite direction. We also don’t think that this positioning would be substantially unwound in the case of ‘no cut’ as inaction will be perceived only as a delay.”

“We recommend selling AUD/CAD at 0.9439, with a target of 0.91. We will reassess at 0.9650.”