When is the German IFO survey and how it could affect EUR/USD?

The German IFO Business Survey Overview

The German IFO survey for April is slated for release later today at 0800 GMT. The headline IFO Business Climate Index is expected to rise slightly to 99.9 versus 99.6 previous.

The Current Assessment sub-index is seen weaker at 103.6 this month, while the IFO Expectations Index – indicating firms’ projections for the next six months – is likely to arrive at 96.1 in the reported month vs. 95.6 last.

Deviation impact on EUR/USD

Readers can find FX Street's proprietary deviation impact map of the event below. As observed the reaction is likely to remain confined between 3 and 40 pips in deviations up to 2.4 to -3.2, although in some cases, if notable enough, a deviation can fuel movements of up to 60 pips.

 How could affect EUR/USD?

The spot looks poised to test the 1.1177 yearly low on disappointing IFO indicators while the EUR/USD pair could rebound to 1.1250 levels on upbeat numbers.

According to Haresh Menghani, Analyst at FXStreet, “A convincing break through the mentioned support, around the 1.1185-75 region, is likely to accelerate the slide towards 1.1120 intermediate support en-route the 1.1100 round figure mark. A follow-through selling has the potential to drag the pair further towards the 1.1060-50 support, representing a descending trend-line extending from August 2018 swing lows. Alternatively, a sustained move back above the 1.1225-30 region might trigger a short-covering bounce and lift the pair beyond the 1.1255-60 supply zone towards testing another short-term descending trend-line resistance, just ahead of the 1.1300 handle.”

Key Notes

Germany: Downside risks for the IFO report - TDS

EUR futures: further retracement on the cards

German IFO and BoC amongst market movers today – Danske Bank

About the German IFO Business Climate

This German business sentiment index released by the CESifo Group is closely watched as an early indicator of current conditions and business expectations in Germany. The Institute surveys more than 7,000 enterprises on their assessment of the business situation and their short-term planning. The positive economic growth anticipates bullish movements for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).